Wednesday, March 26, 2025

The Stock Market has (fill in the blank). What should I do now?

I often see this or similar questions posted on popular online investing and personal finance forums.

“The stock market has gone up (or down) a lot lately. What should I do now?” or “International stocks have not done much in the last 10 years. What should I do with them?” or "Is the recession coming? If so, what should I do?".


In most cases, the right answer to such questions may be “Do nothing”.


When such a question comes up in your mind, you do not need to rush to action based on a guess, a hunch or friend’s or expert’s recommendation. Take a deep breath and follow these steps to make your own rules-based decision, knowing that this strategy has always worked for long-term investors.

Step 1: Determine your Target Asset Allocation

Hopefully, you have already completed this step before starting your investment journey. If you have not, see the following post for details: 

Using Vanguard Investor Questionnaire to determine your asset allocation


Note that this is an important prerequisite for this strategy to work.

Step 2: Determine your current Asset Allocation

If you have your accounts at Vanguard, you can use their Portfolio Watch tool to see your current asset allocation. The following post explains the Portfolio Watch tool in some detail:

Using Vanguard’s Portfolio Watch and Portfolio Tester for Rebalancing


Be sure to include your external (non-Vanguard) accounts in the Portfolio Watch as well. The above post explains how to do this.

Step 3: Rebalance (if necessary)

Lastly, if your actual allocation differs from your target allocation significantly (say, by 5 percentage points), it may be time to rebalance. Again, if you have your accounts at Vanguard, you can use their Portfolio Tester tool for rebalancing. The post mentioned in the Step 2 above explains how to use the Portfolio Tester tool.


If you find that there is no significant difference between your target and actual allocations, no action is necessary. However, if the difference between them makes you uncomfortable, it is time to rebalance for peace of mind.


Related:


Asset Allocation, Dollar Cost Averaging and Rebalancing - The Ultimate “Antifragile” Investment Strategy?


Improve Long-term After-tax Return on 3-fund Portfolio using Asset Location


3 ways to take advantage of a market decline


Disclaimer: This article is not intended to be investment advice. Consult a duly licensed professional for investment advice. The contents of this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, tax, or legal advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.


Thursday, June 20, 2024

Practical Guide to Financial Freedom

Introduction

Financial freedom is not just a dream; it’s a journey that begins with understanding and taking the right steps. For high school and college students, this journey is especially crucial as it sets the foundation for a secure financial future. This short guide will walk you through the essential steps to achieve financial independence.

1. Pick the Right Field of Work

Ikigai is a Japanese concept that means “a reason for being.” It’s about finding joy, fulfillment, and balance in the activities that make up our daily lives. Finding your Ikigai is about aligning your passion, profession, vocation, and mission. It’s a delicate balance that, when achieved, can lead to immense personal and financial rewards. Consider these questions:

  • What do I love? What subjects or activities make you lose track of time?

  • What am I good at? What are the skills for which others often seek your help?

  • What can I be paid for? What jobs are available that align with your interests and skills?

  • What does the world need? How can your work contribute to society?

Combining these elements will lead you to a career that not only pays well but also brings satisfaction and a sense of purpose. Research industries and job markets to understand where your Ikigai may lie. Seek internships and part-time jobs in areas of interest to gain experience and insight.

2. Save 10%-20% of Your Net Income

The golden rule of personal finance is to pay yourself first. Before spending on anything else, set aside 10% to 20% of your net income. This habit ensures that you’re consistently saving for your future. To make it easier, automate your savings so that a portion of your income goes directly into your savings and investment accounts. I like to think of it as paying a monthly subscription fee to my future self, that will pay me back 2, 3, 4 or even 8 times the fee and provide financial freedom!

Saving is a habit that builds discipline and provides a safety net for future financial endeavors. By saving a portion of your income, you’re ensuring that you always have funds set aside for emergencies, opportunities, and investments. When you are just starting your first full-time job, you may start by saving 10% and gradually increase it to 20% (or more!) as your income grows. You can use this spreadsheet to track your expenses and savings. It has categories for must-haves (needs) and fun things (wants). It has a column for monthly goals and also provides a monthly summary to track your progress. You can tailor it to suit your needs.

3. Contribute to 401(k) or IRA and Make it Automatic

Retirement may seem far away, but the earlier you start saving, the better. If your employer offers a 401(k) plan, contribute enough to get the full match; it’s free money. If they don’t, open an Individual Retirement Account (IRA) and contribute regularly. These accounts offer tax advantages that help your savings grow more efficiently.

Retirement accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs are powerful tools for building wealth over time. They offer tax benefits that can significantly enhance your savings. Here’s why starting early matters:

  • The power of compound interest means the earlier you start, the more you’ll have.

  • Automatic contributions ensure you’re consistently saving without having to think about it.

  • Over time, the tax-deferred growth can lead to substantial tax saving.

Also see: The Automatic Investing Revolution

4. Invest in Low-Cost Index Funds or ETFs

Investing is how you turn your savings into wealth. Index funds and Index Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are excellent options for just about everyone thanks to their low costs and diversified portfolios. The key is to invest for the long term. Resist the urge to sell when the market dips; those who stay invested are more likely to see their investments recover and grow over time.

When investing, remember to:

  • Start with at least 10% of net income and increase it as your income grows.

  • Avoid timing the market and stay invested through market ups and downs; consistent long-term investing is key.

  • As you approach your 50s, adjust your asset allocation and rebalance once a year if necessary.

Conclusion

Achieving financial freedom is a disciplined process that requires patience and persistence. By following these steps, you’re not just preparing for a comfortable retirement; you’re setting yourself up for a life where financial stress is not a constant burden. Start today, and watch your efforts compound into lasting financial well-being.

The key is to begin, savor the early successes, and then stay the course, allowing the power of compounding to work its wonders.

Q & A

Here are the answers to some of the common questions.


Q: These steps sound simple. So, why do half of families in the United States have no retirement savings? A: The steps may be simple but they are not easy. When you are young, retirement seems like a remote event. Instant gratification often trumps long-term thinking. Retirement planning, saving and investing don’t seem important until it's too late. In most states in the U.S., personal finance courses in school are not required. Some people lack the knowledge and motivation and are too overwhelmed to take the first step even though most of them are on their own with no pensions and inadequate social security. Also, during your 20s and 30s (when you should ideally start saving for retirement), other obligations such as student loan payments, a down payment for a home, children and family related expenses make it difficult to start saving and investing.

Q: How do I find a field of work that aligns with my Ikigai? A: Start by exploring your interests and strengths. Volunteer, intern, or work part-time in various fields to gain experience. For example, if you love technology, enjoy tackling tough problems or solving logic or math puzzles and have a knack for coding, consider a career in software development or a related field. If you are passionate about physical or mental health and love to help people, explore health related fields. Or one or more of these 20 occupations with high projected growth may spark your interest. It is also very important that you are always learning, no matter what field you choose. And, if you choose the field that you are passionate about, you will always be learning. Learning not only enhances your career but also promotes your overall wellbeing.

Q: What if my passion doesn’t pay well? A: Balance is key. You might have a passion that doesn’t pay well initially. In such cases, you can pursue it as a side project while working in a related field that does pay. Over time, you may find ways to monetize your passion or transition into it full-time. BLS is a good source of information about the outlook for various occupations. Here are the 20 occupations with the highest projected percent change of employment between 2022-32.

Q: Can you recommend some books that can help me learn about personal finance and investing? A: To get started on your investing journey, here are a few books that I would recommend:

  1. The Millionaire Next Door by Thomas Stanley and William Danko

  2. The Little Book of Common Sense Investing by Jack Bogle

  3. I Will Teach You To Be Rich by Ramit Sethi

  4. A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton G. Malkiel

Q: How can I save money when I have student loans and other expenses? A: It’s about prioritizing your future self. Even if it’s just a small amount, saving consistently can make a big difference. For instance, if you save $100 a month starting at age 20, by age 65, you could have over $300,000, assuming a 7% annual return.

Q: Isn’t it better to pay off debt before saving? A: While paying off high-interest debt should be a priority, it’s also important to build the habit of saving. Even a small emergency fund can prevent you from going further into debt when unexpected expenses arise.

Q: Can I access my retirement funds before retirement? A: While it’s possible, it’s not advisable due to penalties and lost growth potential. For example, withdrawing $10,000 from your retirement account today could mean missing out on over $100,000 by the time you retire, assuming a 7% annual growth.

Q: Why choose index funds or index ETFs? A: Index funds and index ETFs provide diversification, which reduces risk. Also, due to their lower expense ratio, index funds perform better than 90% of actively managed funds over the long term. Instead of betting on specific companies, you’re investing in a broad market. For example, an S&P 500 index fund gives you a piece of the top 500 companies in the U.S. including the magnificent 7.

Q: I just started my first job earning a $40,000 annual salary which I expect to grow at 3% per year. I plan to save 12.5% of my income. What would be the value of my retirement account when I turn 65? A: Good plan! By the way, 12.5% is equivalent to 1 hour of your salary each day. This is a great start. You can increase it to 15%, 20% or even 25% as your income grows. For example, you may save half of your raises to increase savings, without compromising your lifestyle needs. At 12.5% saving rate, your account balance will be $1.6 million (see the breakdown in the table below).


Starting Age

25

Retirement Age

65

Annual Return (assumed)

7%

Starting Salary

$40,000

Annual Raise (assumed)

3%

% of Income Saved

12.5%

Total Saved

$393,316

Total Investment Returns

$1,194,771

Ending Balance

$1,588,087

% of Balance from Saving

25%

% of Balance from Investment Returns

75%



As you can see, 75% of the balance comes from investment returns. However, it requires you to save consistently and stay invested through the end, through market ups and downs. Note that the majority of the growth comes after you have built a large enough balance as you get closer to retirement age. For example, at 56, your account balance will be about $770,000 which more than doubles by the time you turn 65 (in the last 9 years)! So, again, saving consistently and staying the course all the way to retirement is key.

Note: You can use this spreadsheet to calculate your projected account balance based on your own data (make a copy to make it editable).


Feel free to post below any additional questions you may have.


Disclaimer: This article is not intended to be investment advice. Consult a duly licensed professional for investment advice. The contents of this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, tax, or legal advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Monday, January 30, 2023

Improve Long-term After-tax Return on 3-fund Portfolio using Asset Location

Summary

  1. For most individual investors, a simple 3-fund portfolio consisting of U. S. Stock Index, International Stock Index and Bond Index is the best way to invest in the market.

  2. In the accumulation (saving for retirement) phase, Asset Location (taxable, tax-free, tax-deferred) i.e. where you place your investments, is as important as Asset Allocation for maximizing after-tax return.

  3. Rebalancing your portfolio once a year is a good practice. It enables you to buy low and sell high automatically.

The Kiplinger article Using Asset Location to Defuse a Retirement Tax Bomb explains the strategy of asset location and why it is crucial to lowering tax bills in retirement.


As the article warns, implementing the optimal asset location strategy can be tricky if your portfolio consists of actively managed funds or ETFs that blend multiple asset classes. However, the implementation is greatly simplified if your portfolio consists of only 3 passively managed asset class pure index funds or ETFs.


In order to use the guidelines in this article, you should meet the following prerequisites.


  1. Asset Allocation: You have determined your suggested asset mix using the Vanguard Investor Questionnaire or using some other tool of your choice.

  2. Index Funds or ETFs only: Your portfolio consists of only 3 broad-based index funds or ETFs investing in total U.S. stocks, international stocks and bonds respectively.

In order to maximize your long-term after-tax returns (especially after retirement during the withdrawal phase), use the following approach to determine the asset location i.e. taxable, Roth IRA and tax-deferred accounts, for your stock and bond funds or ETFs:

  1. First, place total bond index fund in Traditional IRA and 401(k) accounts. Note that taxes on current income from bond investments in these accounts would be deferred until withdrawal. Also, capital gains would be taxed as ordinary income when withdrawn from these accounts during retirement. Maximizing bond allocation in these accounts will result in lower total income and therefore, lower taxes.

  2. Next, place any remaining total bond index fund in the Roth account. Income from bond investments in the Roth account will be sheltered.

  3. Next, place total international stock index fund in the taxable account. This order would work for most investors. It follows the recommendation by Bogleheads and Vanguard and is based on the set of assumptions related to US/International stock allocation, tax withholding rate, investor's marginal tax rate and qualified dividend proportion of the fund. Placing international stocks in the taxable account enables you to take advantage of foreign tax credit, which is not available in tax-advantaged accounts. Please refer to the above links to determine if it makes sense in your case.

  4. Finally, place total US stock index fund in the taxable account and in any remaining space in the Roth account. Place the remaining stock investments in any remaining space in the Traditional IRA and 401(k) accounts. Taxable accounts provide favorable capital gains treatment during the withdrawal phase and Roth accounts provide tax-free growth for stock investments.

The following screenshot illustrates the above calculations using a hypothetical portfolio of $1 million consisting of taxable, Roth IRA and 401(k). It assumes target stocks and bonds allocation of 70/30 i.e. 70% stocks and 30% bonds and target international stocks allocation of 20% of total stocks.


3-fund Portfolio using Asset Location strategy

If you need to make changes to your portfolio allocation and location, you can use Vanguard’s Portfolio Tester tool to test and rebalance your portfolio.

The following example shows the Portfolio Watch for the simple 3-fund portfolio in a single account that has the current allocation of 75/25 (stocks/bonds) with 10% of stocks in international stocks. 


Let us suppose that our target allocation is 70/30 with 20% of stock allocation in international stocks. You can use the Portfolio Tester tool to make hypothetical changes to bring the portfolio to the desired target. Although this portfolio consists of a single account, the tool can also be used for testing changes across multiple accounts (taxable, Roth and tax-deferred).


Click "Analyze" to see the current and hypothetical portfolios side by side.


Click "See Details" next to Hypothetical Asset Mix to see the detailed analysis including risk and return for both portfolios, using past 97 years' data (1926-2022).


Note, however, that your actual rebalancing decisions will depend on many factors, including, your capital gains tax bracket, your tax filing status (single, married filing jointly, etc.) and the amount of your potential taxable capital gains for the year.

To be sure, selling an appreciated fund or ETF may trigger a tax bill unless you are careful. Read the following article to learn about tax-efficient rebalancing strategies: 7 Rebalancing Strategies That Are Tax-Efficient, Too!

Related:


Using Vanguard Investor Questionnaire to determine your asset allocation

Using Vanguard’s Portfolio Watch and Portfolio Tester for Rebalancing

What is the Capital Gains Tax and How is it Calculated? | Kiplinger

7 Rebalancing Strategies That Are Tax-Efficient, Too!

Tax-efficient fund placement (Bogleheads)

Asset location can lead to lower taxes. Here's how to get more value.


Disclaimer: This article is not intended to be investment advice. Consult a duly licensed professional for investment advice. The contents of this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, tax, or legal advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.