Using Vanguard’s Portfolio Watch and Portfolio Tester for Rebalancing

How you allocate your money among stocks, bonds, and short-term reserves may be the most important factor in determining the long-term return and volatility of your portfolio. Once you have determined your asset allocation, rebalancing your portfolio once a year is a good practice. You can pick a date (such as your birthday or anniversary) to rebalance your portfolio.

If you have one or more accounts at Vanguard, they offer two great tools for investors - Portfolio Watch and Portfolio Tester. Portfolio Watch helps you analyze your portfolio and Portfolio Tester enables you to test portfolio changes before submitting actual orders. These tools can help you to determine and set your target allocation, monitor any deviations from the target and help you with required rebalancing, if necessary.

You will find the Portfolio Watch tool as the last tab on the Overview page.

Portfolio Watch provides powerful analysis that helps you understand your assets, how your asset mix impacts your potential for growth and your portfolio risk, and how your costs compare with the industry averages. The Portfolio Watch home page provides a high-level analysis of your assets while each section allows you to see a more detailed analysis.

Portfolio Tester enables you to do “what-if” analysis of your planned changes before submitting actual buy, sell or exchange orders. This tool is handy when you want to rebalance your portfolio or when you are planning to add new money to your account or to sell part of your investments for withdrawal. You can use the Portfolio Tester tool to enter hypothetical orders (buy and/or sell) and view their effect on your asset allocation.

Although the portfolio watch tool is powerful and useful, some of the alerts generated by the tool should be taken with a grain of salt. Take the following portfolio alert, for example:

I think 30% to 50% allocation to foreign stocks is too high. I personally use 20% of the equity portion of the portfolio as my target allocation for international stocks. You may be using a different rule based on your needs and preferences. So, while the analysis is useful, use your own judgment and experience when reviewing the information, charts and especially the alerts presented by the tool. I primarily use this tool to view and monitor asset allocation.

By default, Portfolio Watch includes all assets available for analysis. You can create custom groups to analyze specific assets or accounts.

The tool works best if you have all your investment accounts at Vanguard. However, outside assets are included if you have linked non-Vanguard accounts to your Vanguard account. You can also manually add outside assets for analysis. Manually added funds and stocks with ticker symbols are classified automatically by the tool. Some of the manually added assets for which data is not available may appear as an "Other" asset type. However, you can manually classify them as a "Stock", "Bond", or "Short-term reserve".

You can click the Portfolio Tester link on the top of Portfolio Watch page to initiate the tool.

On the Portfolio Tester tool, you have an option to enter one or more new holding(s) you are planning to buy or make changes to your existing holdings. Use a "-" sign for sales. For example, if you are planning to exchange a fund or ETF worth $10,000 to another fund or ETF, enter -10000 as the amount on an existing line for the fund or ETF you are planning to sell, under the appropriate account in which the fund is held and enter 10000 (without a sign) on the line for the fund or ETF you are planning to buy. For new purchases, simply enter an amount without a sign either on an existing line (if you already hold the fund) or add a new line.

The following screenshots illustrate the scenario where the investor plans to move $10,000 from the Total Stock Market Index Fund to the Total International Stock Index Fund. Note the "-" sign in "-10000" for the first fund.

Clicking the Analyze button presents the comparative analysis of your current and hypothetical portfolio (after planned changes) with an option to drill into each section for details.

Click "See Details" next to Hypothetical Asset Mix to see the detailed analysis including risk and return for both portfolios, using past 97 years' data (1926-2022).

Note that selling an appreciated fund may trigger a tax bill unless you are careful. Start with tax-sheltered accounts - 401(k) and IRA - when rebalancing. See the following article for more tax-efficient rebalancing strategies: 7 Rebalancing Strategies That Are Tax-Efficient, Too!

If you use the 3-fund portfolio, you can use these two tools to manage both portfolio allocation and portfolio location, to improve your long-term after-tax return.

In summary, Portfolio Watch and Portfolio Tester tools, available to Vanguard customers at no cost, are two great tools that can help investors with portfolio analysis and rebalancing. I suggest that you give them a try.

Related:

Using Vanguard Investor Questionnaire to determine your asset allocation

Improve Long-term After-tax Return on 3-fund Portfolio using Asset Location

Asset Allocation, Dollar Cost Averaging and Rebalancing - The Ultimate “Antifragile” Investment Strategy?

Disclaimer: This article is not intended to be investment advice. Consult a duly licensed professional for investment advice. The contents of this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, tax, or legal advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Randomness

Although not directly related to personal finance, randomness very much affects short-term financial performance and therefore, influences our financial decisions (and arguably pretty much everything in life!).

Random walk theory says that it is impossible to predict how a stock will move at any given time. In the short- and medium-term, a stock's price doesn't have any known relationship with either its intrinsic value or the value of any other assets on the market.

The following example (really, a puzzle) is not related to personal finance but illustrates an important point about chance or probability. I recently read the book about this subject called Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb that led me to another interesting book: Randomness by Deborah Bennett.

In the latter book, the author Deorah Bennett writes: “To even the mathematically enlightened, some issues in probability are not so intuitive.”

She then uses the following example from the psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky to illustrate this point:

A cab was involved in a hit and run accident at night. Two cab companies, the Green and the Blue, operate in the city. You are given the following data:

(a) 85% of the cabs in the city are Green and 15% are Blue.

(b) A witness identified the cab as Blue. The court tested the reliability of the witness under the same circumstances that existed on the night of the accident and concluded that the witness correctly identified each one of the two colors 80% of the time and failed 20% of the time.

What is the probability that the cab involved in the accident was Blue rather than Green?

If you enjoy solving mathematical puzzles, you may want to pause here and see if you can solve this problem correctly.

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She continues: A typical answer is around 80 percent. The correct answer is around 41 percent. In fact, the hit-and-run cab is more likely to be Green than Blue.

To reiterate, even if the witness identified the offending cab as Blue, it is more likely to be Green (59%) than Blue (41%)!

However, she does not provide the explanation of the correct answer. So, here it is:

Probability that the Blue was involved (based on % of cabs)	15%
Probability that the Green was involved (based on % of cabs)	85%
Probability that the Blue was involved, and witness correctly identified cab as Blue (15% * 80%)	12%
Probability that the Green was involved, and witness incorrectly identified cab as Blue (85% * 20%)	17%
Therefore, probability that the Blue was actually involved when witness identified cab as Blue (12% / 29%)	41.38%

As to why most people answer 80%, here’s the possible explanation:

Kahneman and Tversky suspect that people err in the hit and run problem because they see the base rate of cabs in the city as incidental rather than as a contributing or causal factor. As other experts have pointed out, people tend to ignore, or at least fail to grasp, the importance of base-rate information because it “is remote, pallid, and abstract,” while target information is “vivid, pressing, and concrete.”

Asset Allocation, Dollar Cost Averaging and Rebalancing - The Ultimate “Antifragile” Investment Strategy?

Antifragile, a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, reveals how some systems thrive from shocks, volatility and uncertainty, instead of breaking from them, and how you can adapt more antifragile traits yourself to thrive in an uncertain and chaotic world.

While reading the book, it occurred to me that using asset allocation, dollar cost averaging and periodic rebalancing may offer the ultimate “antifragile” investment strategy for long-term investors. It benefits from rising prices when the market is going up, takes advantage of lower prices when the market declines and at the same time reduces your portfolio risk.

The consensus among most financial professionals is that asset allocation is one of the most important decisions that investors make. For most individual investors, a simple 3-fund portfolio consisting of U.S. Stock Index, International Stock Index and Bond Index is the best way to invest in the market.

What about international stocks? How much should you allocate to international stocks? The founder of Vanguard Group, the late Jack Bogle recommends allocating 20% of the equity portion of your portfolio to international stocks. For example, if your stock allocation is 70% (with 30% in bonds), then allocate 14% (20% of 70%) to international stocks and 56% (remaining 80% of 70%) to U.S. stocks.

Once you have determined your asset allocation, rebalancing your portfolio once a year is a good practice. You can pick a date (such as your birthday or anniversary) to rebalance your portfolio.

There is another option recommended by some advisers. It involves rebalancing when asset classes deviate from their target by a certain absolute percentage. For example, if your target asset allocation is 60% equities and 40% fixed income and your absolute rebalancing threshold is +/- 5%, you would rebalance your portfolio when your portfolio reaches (65% equities / 35% fixed income) or (55% equities / 45% fixed income). This is a fine strategy, but it requires active monitoring of your portfolio allocations.

Rebalancing helps you implement the “Buy Low - Sell High” strategy automatically, because it involves selling an asset class that has appreciated (or has not declined as much) and buying an asset class that has declined in value (or has not appreciated as much).

Note that selling an appreciated fund may trigger a tax bill unless you are careful. Start with tax-sheltered accounts - 401(k) and IRA - when rebalancing. See the link below for more tax-efficient rebalancing strategies.

So, what's the catch? This strategy sounds simple but may not be easy. It requires a good understanding of the stock market and its history, knowing yourself (your risk tolerance and capacity), discipline to save and invest and stay invested through all market phases with a cool head (which requires understanding of the market and its history) and abundant patience.

Related:

Using Vanguard’s Portfolio Watch and Portfolio Tester for Rebalancing

Improve Long-term After-tax Return on 3-fund Portfolio using Asset Location

7 Rebalancing Strategies That Are Tax-Efficient, Too!

Using Vanguard Investor Questionnaire to determine your asset allocation

3 ways to take advantage of a market decline

Disclaimer: This article is not intended to be investment advice. Consult a duly licensed professional for investment advice. The contents of this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, tax, or legal advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.